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I am going to jump right into the next end of the cycle/pattern talk today. While we await the fed chairman’s wonderful words of blah,blah and a BLAH!! SO TO EXPLAIN THE BLAH AND BLAH REMARK… the world is in a new way (y2k…baby!!) since the turning in 1999 or 2000 whatever year scared you the most, look at the following i will type out. for everyone looking at this,i pointed out yesterday about foundation and pattern, this is along that. ANOTHER point that i am laying out there is that i am 2 proud features: neither fake nor negative, reasoning (i am not bashing or gang tackling the fed/economy/us/central banks etc.

i really just want people to learn and see, i have 100 x’s the info i am typing but it has to start little by little somewhere) so here we go, step right up, your journey (OF SORTS! AWAITS) WELCOME TO FANTASY LAND….. since the new years of ’00 japan has 24 then 28 bank of 32 regional banks going into red,some under as well. the USA has poured billions into ours and other countries..over 1/3 of the banks here in dire red, countrywide(will do separate piece later) and mortgage lenders, the euro zone almost 1/3 in negative positions as well. that is what we see and hear about anyway. the USA was expecting people to go risk wild into the summer like years past…the approach has been “SPEND WITH NO REGARD,MAKE COMPANIES WEALTHY, GO BIGGER INTO DEBT, WE CAN PILE IT ON….THE CYCLE DOESNT END,UNTIL each person drops off one by one and can’t stand to play anymore;being so behind and all. what about the Japanese banks holders of 500 million plus in us treasuries!!! THE USA was very enticing going into war, seeing all that money OPEC was gaining after the price band above $32.00 was broken surpassing $40 then “our” SUPERSIZE….WHOOPS, i mean super-spike! look at that…all that $$$$ …..(i can talk and go into many areas,but understand the pattern 22 million barrels used per day and oil going up only $5.00 per bl = so we are talking hundreds of million $$$ in a week to month) so the USA devalues the dollar,makes it weaker so people need more dollars (japan was the guinea pig/biz partner first) so the $ is cheaper, at the end of the day more money comes in. plus the USA gets the bond/treasury rate to go to highest rate seen in decades, WHO WONT BUY THIS…AFTERALL IS THE USA GOING UNDER…NO WAY!!!SAFE HAVEN, TREASURY IS PERFECT. EACH OF THESE EQUATIONS you have pimco, goldman sachs, smith barney, and other companies can benefit. did you hear of the time pimco found out how to flush the treasury sector,and make money!!! they did it well, the us had to put a lot of money into the exchange to prevent the scales from tipping,and investor funds maintaining the earnings. so again you have action by the government,then reaction from traders and brokerage houses…so a pattern/cycle working. what is funny, hahaha funny about the economy now;the government thinks throw money in and we can keep the train going!! HERE IS MY QUICK POINT: ALL THAT I MENTIONED WITH GROWTH, UP AND UP AND UP……WE HAD SMALL MOVES ON CHARTS,little moves in companies…but we have grown and GROWN, we need contraction to reset the scales and get us to another big growth wave!! it is the wave theory applied!!! BUT, there is a but here….it will be different this go around. we are a different group now, generation x,y and z plus in between. people are trading different now, electronic is more prevalent, that is good and bad. i remember people used to be worried years ago, electronic trading will make the floor obsolete,and take away from trades;even more fluid pricing! RIGHT…..THIS IS ALL PART OF A GREAT TIME WE ARE IN, EVERYONE IS HERE……WELCOME TO FANTASY LAND!!!!
this was a washover on many levels,have a few more parts to expand on with this.

I LOVE BEING RIGHT…AGAIN!! Last week, i suggested to my friends and clients to buy the december (z) gold $1250.00 calls! you could have purchased these positions for under $2500.00 and today sold for over $3600.00 ; so great profit, but there will be more….afterall, i claimed that i “would bet my house” on them,and they would make 30% definately NO DOUBT!!! WELL, now i can rest assured….because i was right.

(i have a piece i wrote and was published in a trade show magazine years ago, i will try to find link and hyper link, or just summarize and re-add later this week or so.) that was a lil side note*** SEPERATE piece of interesting news, AMAZING that the margin requirements were raised for gold again what a sign most people dont comprehend or really factor into trading, but “they” are really trying to shape the depth of the traders back to deep water whales and different types that can swim in the waters of the market with the “big” fish and the whales are the “biggest” of them all…afterall they can impact along diff levels and depths. after a decade of dinkin and dunkin thru many trading levels “THEY” are shaking the waters up again so the little fish,and moms and pops wont be able to just play in the water anymore. So many professional traders are happier when this happens, the small erratic clips and little side trades people chase because they think they know , are more frustrating and not worth the extra liquidity that the makers,platforms and traders seek. NOW, AGAIN…(for those of you who speak english as a 2nd or 3rd language!) LOL! BUY AND BUY, AND AGAIN BUY DECEMBER GOLD OPTIONS (FIND THE VALUE 1ST) ***etra nugget*** if you get a chance at pullback special and can swipe thru while futures break down a little on the low range 1182 thru 1198 (pick your price,like pickin’ your poison) you can be a connaisseur in that range if you want to exude patience, but you can rest easy that if you jump in with both feet you will NOT BE DROWNING…..good day, people and be safe out there!!

PART ONE:  volume and volatility, well now people think investments can be ordered up just like the big-mac at the golden arches;what common thinking can be……a double edged sword!! one of the biggest factors in gains are the waves and the extended waves that make the profit on your holdings. now every investment vehicle(some need diff angles) has a difference with volume, the more volume sets pricing up, and can be the difference on winning and staying the course in longer trend holdings, and shorter for the performance of the reco from your advisor/trader/broker. my point is simple, but clearly you have to leave emotion out,like i said yesterday! emotion delays your response,and action…hence why you have an advisor pro who is bringing to you. (i love using poa  to simplify,but my rule is i lay out a plan with client and we both sign off, and i make them aware of the times or mkt where risk or surprise may pop out;that way they can hold me to something instead of blind loyalty) Back to volume; volume is the neighborhood….you want to keep up with the jones’s right? so understand if your last, doesn’t something new just pop up? YES,IT DOES!! so YOU NEED TO REALIZE, “the early bird gets’ the worm.” now if you were the original Mr./Mrs. jones or close to the early bird then you have locked in and you will get more appreciation…that is what volume can do for the positive.(i can write 10 more pro’s but let’s stay under novel length). volatility is movement, that helps to expand and contract the neighborhood, simply put (if this little def can’t make easier for you please find another page to read, lol)

PART 2: MAY IS TYPICALLY DREARY FOR GOLD….yes, in the past.  NOW, UNDERSTAND BUSINESS 101, this was part of the reason i said from fundamental point(which i try to stay on tech,but i preached this for over a year for those who have listened to me in person). 2nd quarter for big business(any smart biz anyway) is where the business sets to blaze for profit,smack dab.. wide open between holiday to hangover 1st quarter;then between sporadic summer, the  kids’ getting out into labor day rebound. so get the picture:

4th Q = HOLIDAY BUZZ

1ST Q= REBOUND AND STREAMLINE READINESS

2NDQ= PROFIT MARGIN SET BAR HIGH

3RD Q= REALLIGN,PREP FOR 4TH NEW SEASON/YEAR HERE

THIS IS A SAFE BLUE-PRINT FOR SUCCESS(YES THERE IS MORE,BUT I’M NOT PRINTING HOW TO RUN A SUCCESFUL BUSINESS HERE)  so realize after taking money and fed aid, assets with a weak dollar…hmmm so let’s set the bar high and buy to raise profit margin on assets. so back to plan may brought movement, June new move higher in gold. now the day traders and range traders (bears and bulls play nice right now) come in, and very soon within several weeks 2 things will happen volume will decrease rapidly(profit taking,long liquidation) and then extra volume and money will come back in and swoop thru setting another sharp spike in gold driving the mkt higher. so for asset buyers i wrote yesterday to buy, profiteers and savvy buyers several different peaks and valleys to snatch up!! either way..win win situation.

MULTIPLE BULLS’ RUN, target was hit with precision tip!  I had to make today the return,(not that i left to a remote island or anything). The return was brought forth by my self appreciating “pat on the back!!!!” So, the bulls have come back, again, who said in december….and again in feb.,  the important fact is still prevalent, we have more left in the tank. The move we have in front of us now, yes volatility is present, but will continue! There will be some consolidation, that is a given, but shortly there after….YES, ANOTHER RUN THRU THE STREETS OF PAMPLONA! The running will occur, so take note,on the record; continue to buy the dips.

Here are a few keys to keep in mind: 1.) gold drives the complex (precious metals)  2.)  the measuring stick,  silver/gold factor : the spread has to decrease(that means gold will run, %  wise silver will run more) for the complex as a whole also.   3.) dollar and euro = absorbed into positive tangible assets. So money spent, money depreciating, there has to be a positive move to offset the devalue The bottom line, there are a few people who get scared, or cold feet. Those buyers or investors should really understand this is going to continue forward,the bull’s are out!  With any bull run, you continue forward…YOU NEVER STOP AND LOOK AROUND, because that is when you get hurt and the bull stomps all over you with no regards……. WETHER you started with me in 2000,2005, (came to my 2006 special engagement with client and  former chairman of joints chief of staff admiral William Crowe and the presentation we did) or 2008,or you just started….we haven’t hit the biggest part of the eye yet! NOW, IF YOU ARE SMART: GRAB THE BULL BY THE HORNS! Bernake is speaking today, so very shortly the bull’s will come back out and play! so on the record again, if you didn’t absorb the message, or fear is clouding your brain(emotion or over analyzing is worse thing when investing); step into the running of the bulls’  GOLD will continue,silver will rise! he who has the ______ makes the rules. ***side bar*** i know that i have been busy, leave message with sky if you need me to get back to you right away,  be patient, i have just been juggling trades,appointments,and meetings’ in and out of office. So please understand and don’t take personally, i get it all done no matter what at the end of the day. BE SAFE TILL NEXT TIME…..

SO…. who is worried about the metals sector right now?

I know everyone out there is looking for a pattern, well, I have one for you here (I know 3 heart attacks later and worrying about a true bottom….have no fear!) the market is setting up the beginning stages of the cup and saucer pattern (in my opinion).

As I previously stated in my comment the fundamental point is simple: on paper it is a symbol plus or minus (math never looked so juicy, maybe it is the 30% retracement) and it is the end of the year so does this stay on paper….

EXACTLY NO WAY!! YOU HAVE TO TAKE PROFIT, IT IS THE 4TH QUARTER for gosh sakes’ (I could say god’s sake but unless you shorted or put the market down god’s sake didn’t help you.) LET’S GO TO THE TECH SIDE: like I stated prev. cup and saucer is starting to form the stochastics are setting up for a massive move here, START TO BUY!!! The 14, 3 parameter on the slow feed is setting in place an impressive up swing. YOU have room for the down side if the market closes today below 1120 or 1127 on Thursday. SO remember, you could see a negative bounce, but keep buying if you feel bull strong! If the market breaks 1100 then you will see 1060 no doubt. SO, for the day/range traders you are bearish with a nice little bit of room here, but the bull camp is eyeing another wave, there is room for both to live, we break 1050.00 and good night Irene, nice to meet you!

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), noted that its holdings fell to 1,116.247 tonnes, worth over $41 billion at the current gold price, as of December 8^th.  This represented a fall of 1.2 percent or more than 13 tonnes in a day and was the largest one-day drop in around five months according to a Reuters report.  The SPDR Gold Trust ETF hit a record high of 1,134.03 tonnes on June 1, and up until recently had been climbing back towards this level again.

Further falls were expected to be announced today as the gold market is going through a period of uncertainty and some investors are liquidating some or all of their holdings, and taking some hefty profits, in case the recent gold price falls are because a gold price ‘bubble’ has burst.

The SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings are larger than those of most nations’ Central Banks, and there has always been a worry that this overhang of gold, effectively in fickle investors’ hands, could in itself prompt a catastrophic fall in the gold price if sentiment moved sufficiently to generate a major sell-off, leading to a downwards price spiral.

So far this has not happened, and with the weaker dollar this morning seeing the gold price pick up, and continuing economic uncertainty, there is evidence of buyers coming back into the gold market seeing the earlier falls as a good buying opportunity, and ignoring the ‘bubble’ talk.

There is no doubt that the recent sharp movements in the gold price that have seen it fluctuate up and back down by nearly $100 in the past weeks make this a market for those with nerves of steel.  Several observers have warned of excessive volatility ahead and these warnings are definitely coming into play.  The fundamentals which have been driving the gold price upwards are still in play, but as we have warned before on Mineweb, markets are often driven by investor sentiment and if the force is no longer seen to be with gold there could be even more volatility ahead for the price until some stability sets in.

Movements up or down in the SPDR gold ETF holdings will thus be watched with particular interest over the next few days as this will be a good indicator of where gold investment sentiment is trending.

Silver’s a severely undervalued ‘investment opportunity of a lifetime’

TOKYO (MarketWatch) — Silver’s not so much a poor man’s gold anymore and investors may soon realize that the white metal’s the real treasure.

True, at $17 per ounce, silver is cheap — trading around 60 times less than gold’s record price of more than $1,100. But year to date, it’s climbed 52% in value compared with gold’s rise of around 25%, according to data from FactSet Research.

Silver is a precious metal, after all, one that has historically outperformed gold in a bull market and doubles as an industrial metal — and supplies of it are depleting at a much more rapid pace.

“Silver is unique in terms of being both a monetary and an industrial metal,” the Bullion Services Team at GoldCore said in a recent report, pointing out that it’s severely undervalued. “Silver remains the investment opportunity of a lifetime.”

Gold’s prices have climbed nearly 11% in the last two months. In that same time span, silver’s up by only 3.1%.

And “investors looking for returns continue to wager on higher gold prices, whether it be on concerns over equity or currency markets … or to make quick short-term profits,” according to CPM Group’s latest Precious Metals Advisory.

But investors would be better served to turn their eye toward silver.

“Silver is highly correlated to the safe haven of gold and is, in effect, a leveraged sister of the precious yellow metal,” according to GoldCore, an international bullion dealer. “Thus, informed investors use gold more for wealth preservation purposes and silver in order to make a return.”

‘Silver remains the investment opportunity of a lifetime.’

Bullion Services Team, GoldCore

That’s particularly important to keep in mind as investors change the way they perceive the paper-asset markets.

As stocks, currencies, bonds and other paper assets have begun to disappoint investors, investor attitudes have been shifting, said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for VRTrader.com.

“What begins as a trickle ends as a tidal wave when the panic peaks [and] when public revulsion at the U.S. dollar begins, the tidal wave will become a tsunami,” he said.

Under that scenario, “silver, far more volatile than gold, will benefit most,” he said.

A split personality

Forced to pick just one, Chris Mayer, editor of Agora Financial’s Capital and Crisis said he’d rather own gold. Others disagree.

“Silver does not have the same appeal as gold,” said Mayer.

“What did India’s central bank buy in record amounts … [and] what did China double its reserves of this year? Gold,” he said. “They aren’t buying silver.”

“It’s not like comparing oil with [natural] gas, where you are comparing the energy equivalent of the two and there is some economic incentive when the gaps get very wide to switch to one or the other at the margin,” said Mayer. “That doesn’t exist with silver and gold.”

And when the global industry remains mired in a slow growth pattern, the market’s not going to see sky-high prices for a metal whose “lion share of demand comes from its industrial applications,” said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

It’s really silver’s “precious side that is holding it up right now,” said Ed Bugos, director of mining finance at Strategic Metals Research and Capital. “Its industrial side would be over valued” with the ratio of silver to other commodities having made new highs.

The investment figures for silver show this loud and clear.

“Silver’s allure as an investment is evermore appealing as a hedge against fading fiat currencies that are getting inflated into oblivion,” said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.

This is “measurable via skyrocketing investment demand” for physical bullion and exchange-traded funds, he said, pointing out that the iShares Silver Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!slv/quotes/nls/slv (SLV 17.04, +0.12, +0.71%) has already increased its holdings by 29% in 2009.

From the start of this year through the end of October, total silver holdings in exchange-traded funds were up 36.3%, according to data from CPM Group.

The sale of silver coins and minted bars also offers a good gauge of demand.

Over at The Perth Mint, total silver ounces sold as coins and minted bars is five times higher in the 2008-2009 year compared with 2005-2006, according to data from the Mint, which is owned by the Government of Western Australia. During the same period, gold ounces sold as coins and minted bars have more than doubled.

U.S. Silver Eagle coin sales were up 72.6% in October from a month ago — up 106.2% from October 2008, CPM Group data showed.

“Although fabrication demand is important, it is investment demand that tends to have a more dynamic effect on silver prices,” said Chintan Parikh, a commodity analyst at CPM Group in New York.

“This is because of the larger dollar volumes of money that can be involved with investment demand, the speed and intensity with which investment demand trends can rise, fall and reverse course, and the ultimately total discretion that investors have over whether they wish to be involved in silver at all,” he said.

Fame and fortune

But while some agree that benefits for silver’s precious metal characteristics have outweighed the pluses from its industrial uses, that industrial label may soon turn out to be of lesser hardship.

“The industrial uses for silver are numerous and generate substantial additional demand for silver outside its precious metal usage,” said Patrick Kerr, managing director at Amerifutures Commodities & Options.

True, silver’s suffering from a falloff in demand from the photography world as consumers turn to the digital age, but industries are finding other uses for the versatile metal, including medical applications, and actually consuming supplies as they use them.

“Silver is consumed and gone forever in most applications,” said Julian Phillips, an editor at SilverForecaster.com. On the other hand, “huge efforts are made to recover gold, so essentially it is not consumed.”

Gold’s much higher value prompts great efforts to recycle it. In fact, “all the gold mined in the world ever is still with us, but a huge amount of silver has been used in photography, mirrors and other industrial uses in the last 200 years,” according to the GoldCore report. “The low price of silver makes recovery and recycling uneconomic.”

So “industrial demand has been outstripping mining supply for most of the last 20 years, driving above-ground supply to historically low levels” and silver production has been flat in recent years, while demand has been increasing, the report said.

As a result, refined silver stocks are near an all-time low, with stocks dropping from around 2.2 billion ounces in 1990 to around 300 million ounces today, it said.

“At one time, silver was more expensive than gold, but that was in the days of Egypt’s Pharaohs,” said Phillips.

And while no one wants to say that will ever happen again, most analysts expect that silver prices will soon react to gold’s recent gains.

Prices for silver could spike to $18.25 or even $20 between now and December, according to CPM Group.

GoldCore expects to see prices at well over the nominal high of $50 an ounce and, eventually, surpass the inflation-adjusted high of some $130 per ounce in the coming years.

“Ultimately, silver tends to exhibit its largest spurts in the latter stages of a major gold up legs,” said Zeal’s Wright. “Once speculators and investors start to get excited about this metal, it can really fly — and fast.”

Myra P. Saefong is MarketWatch’s assistant global markets editor, based in Tokyo.